New Answers to Old Questions Myanmar Before and After the 2021 Coup d’État Adelphi Series

Outside Myanmar, the 2021 coup d?état has often been portrayed as the end of a hopeful period for the country. In this Adelphi book, however, Aaron Connelly and Shona Loong argue that the Aung San Suu Kyi government that preceded it was a false dawn, unlikely to fulfil the international community's aspirations for a stable, peaceful and strong Myanmar. Instead, the movement opposing the 2021 coup holds much greater promise ? despite the bloody conflict that dominates the news today.

Connelly and Loong survey three fundamental relationships that have shaped Myanmar before and after the coup ? between the military and the state, between the majority Burmese and ethnic minorities, and between Myanmar and the world ? to explain how opposition to the coup has shifted all of them in a more liberal, pluralist and cosmopolitan direction.

Authors
Acknowledgements
Abbreviations
Maps

Introduction
Organisation of this book
Why Myanmar matters

Chapter One: The relationship between the armed forces and the state
The origins of the Tatmadaw
The emergence of the NLD
Tatmadaw–NLD accommodation
The NLD in government
Conclusion

Chapter Two: The relationship between the centre and the periphery
‘Race’ during British colonisation
Ethnic relations before independence
Insurgencies in Cold War Burma
Solidarity, ceasefires and co-optation
The USDP and NLD years
Conclusion

Chapter Three: The relationship between Myanmar and the world
Positive (and negative) non-alignment
Foreign relations under the SLORC and SPDC
Partial liberalisation under Thein Sein
Aung San Suu Kyi as State Counsellor
Conclusion

Chapter Four: The relationship between Myanmar’s past and its future
From peaceful protest to armed resistance
Myanmar’s new chapter
Conclusion

Epilogue
Stalemate
Three scenarios
Western disengagement, Asian fears
Deeper currents
A closing window of opportunity

Notes
Index

Aaron Connelly is Senior Fellow for Southeast Asian Politics and Foreign Policy at the IISS. Based in the Singapore office, his research focuses on Indonesia, Myanmar, ASEAN, and US policy in the region. Prior to joining the IISS, Aaron was the first director of the Southeast Asia Project at the Lowy Institute in Sydney. Earlier in his career, he worked as a Fulbright scholar and visiting fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta. He is a graduate of Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.

Shona Loong is Associate Fellow for Southeast Asian Politics and Foreign Policy at the IISS. She works on the IISS Myanmar Conflict Map microsite, contributing analyses and shaping its overall direction. Shona holds a DPhil in human geography from the University of Oxford and is currently a senior scientist in political geography at the University of Zurich. Her research focuses on conflict, peacebuilding, and the politics of development in Myanmar and its borderlands.